Kuva mu mwaka wa 2020, bitewe n’ubwiyongere bw’ibikenewe mu mahanga, igabanuka ry’igicuruzwa cy’ubwato, ubwinshi bw’ibyambu, ibikoresho n’ibindi bintu, ibicuruzwa mpuzamahanga byo mu nyanja bya kontineri byiyongereye, kandi isoko ryabaye “ridahwitse”.Kuva mu ntangiriro zuyu mwaka, ibicuruzwa mpuzamahanga byo mu nyanja bitwara ibicuruzwa kuva ihungabana ryinshi no gukosorwa.Imibare yatanzwe n’ivunjisha rya Shanghai yerekanaga ko ku ya 18 Ugushyingo 2022, igipimo cy’imizigo cyoherezwa mu mahanga cya Shanghai cyafunzwe ku manota 1306.84, bikomeza kugabanuka kuva mu gihembwe cya gatatu.Mu gihembwe cya gatatu, nk'igihe cy’ibihe bisanzwe by’ubucuruzi bwo gutwara ibicuruzwa ku isi, ibiciro byo gutwara ibicuruzwa ntibyerekanye iterambere ryinshi, ahubwo byagaragaje igabanuka rikabije.Ni izihe mpamvu zibitera, kandi ubona ute inzira zizaza?

Kugabanuka kubisabwa bigira ingaruka kubiteganijwe
Kugeza ubu, ubwiyongere bwa GDP mu bukungu bukomeye ku isi bwadindije ku buryo bugaragara, kandi amadolari y’Amerika yazamuye igipimo cy’inyungu byihuse, bituma ubukana bw’ifaranga bukomera ku isi.Ufatanije n’ingaruka z’icyorezo cya COVID-19 n’ifaranga ryinshi, ubwiyongere bw’ibikenewe hanze bwagiye buhoro ndetse butangira kugabanuka.Muri icyo gihe, imbogamizi zo kuzamuka mu bukungu mu gihugu ziyongereye.Kwiyongera kw'ibiteganijwe ko ubukungu bwifashe nabi ku isi ni ugushyira ingufu mu bucuruzi ku isi no ku baguzi.
Dufatiye ku miterere y'ibicuruzwa, guhera mu 2020, ibikoresho byo gukumira icyorezo bihagarariwe n'imyenda, ibiyobyabwenge n'ibikoresho by'ubuvuzi ndetse n '“ubukungu bwo mu rugo” bugereranywa n'ibikoresho, ibikoresho byo mu rugo, ibikoresho bya elegitoroniki n'ibikoresho by'imyidagaduro byagaragaye ko iterambere ryihuse.Hamwe n’ibiranga ibicuruzwa by’umuguzi “murugo ubukungu”, nkigiciro gito, ingano nini nubunini bunini bwa kontineri, umuvuduko wubwiyongere bwibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga ugeze ku ntera nshya.
Bitewe n’imihindagurikire y’ibidukikije, ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu kato n’ibicuruzwa “ubukungu bwo mu rugo” byagabanutse kuva mu 2022. Kuva muri Nyakanga, ubwiyongere bw’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga n’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga ndetse byahindutse.
Ukurikije ibarura ryakozwe mu Burayi no muri Amerika, abaguzi bakomeye ku isi, abadandaza ndetse n’abakora ibicuruzwa bahuye n’ibikorwa biturutse ku kugabanuka gukabije, guhatanira ibicuruzwa ku isi, ibicuruzwa mu nzira igana ku bicuruzwa byinshi mu myaka irenga ibiri gusa.Muri Reta zunzubumwe zamerika, bamwe mubadandaza binini nka Wal-Mart, Best Buy na Target bafite ibibazo bikomeye byo kubara, cyane cyane muri TVS, ibikoresho byo mu gikoni, ibikoresho byo mu nzu ndetse n imyambaro.“Ibarura ryinshi, bigoye kugurisha” ryabaye ikibazo gikunze kugaragara ku bacuruzi bo mu Burayi no muri Amerika, kandi iri hinduka rigabanya uburyo bwo gutumiza mu mahanga ku baguzi, ku bacuruzi no ku bakora ibicuruzwa.
Ku bijyanye n’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga, kuva mu 2020 kugeza mu wa 2021, byatewe no gukwirakwiza icyorezo ku isi ndetse n’Ubushinwa bugamije gukumira no gukumira, ibyoherezwa mu Bushinwa byatanze inkunga ikomeye mu kuzamura ubukungu bw’ibihugu byose.Umugabane w’Ubushinwa ku bicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga ku isi wiyongereye uva kuri 13% muri 2019 ugera kuri 15% mu mpera za 2021. Kuva mu 2022, ubushobozi bwari bwaragiranye mbere muri Amerika, Ubudage, Ubuyapani, Koreya yepfo na Aziya y’Amajyepfo y’Amajyepfo bwaragarutse vuba.Hamwe n’ingaruka za “decoupling” y’inganda zimwe na zimwe, umugabane w’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu Bushinwa byatangiye kugabanuka, ibyo bikaba binagira ingaruka ku buryo butaziguye izamuka ry’ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga bikenerwa mu Bushinwa.

Ubushobozi bunoze burarekurwa mugihe ibyifuzo bigenda bigabanuka, itangwa ryinyanja ryiyongera.
Nkumuyobozi wumuvuduko ukabije wubwikorezi bwubwikorezi bwisi yose, inzira ya kure yuburasirazuba-Amerika nayo ni "ingenzi" ikomeye yinzira yohereza ibicuruzwa ku isi.Kubera ubwiyongere bwa Amerika kuva muri 2020 kugeza 2021, gutinda kuvugurura ibikorwa remezo by’icyambu no kutagira ingano y’ubwato bukwiye, ibyambu byo muri Amerika byahuye n’umubyigano ukabije.
Kurugero, amato ya kontineri ku cyambu cya Los Angeles yigeze kumara impuzandengo yiminsi irenga 10 kubyara, ndetse bamwe batonze umurongo iminsi irenga 30 bonyine.Muri icyo gihe, ubwiyongere bw’ibicuruzwa n’ibisabwa bikurura umubare munini w’amato n’amasanduku biva mu zindi nzira zerekeza kuri iyi nzira, na byo byongereye mu buryo butaziguye itangwa ry’ibisabwa n’izindi nzira, bimaze gutera ubusumbane bwa “kontineri imwe biragoye kubona ”na“ akazu kamwe biragoye kubona ”.
Nkuko ibyifuzo byagabanutse kandi ibisubizo byicyambu byabaye nkana, siyanse na gahunda, ubwinshi bwibyambu byo mumahanga bwateye imbere kuburyo bugaragara.Inzira za kontineri kwisi zagiye zisubira muburyo bwambere, kandi umubare munini wibikoresho byubusa mumahanga byagarutse, kuburyo bigoye gusubira mubintu byahoze byitwa "ikintu kimwe biragoye kubibona" ​​kandi "ikintu kimwe kiragoye kubibona".
Hamwe n’iterambere ry’ubusumbane hagati y’ibitangwa n’ibisabwa mu nzira zikomeye, igipimo cy’ubwato bw’igihe cy’amasosiyete akomeye ku isi nacyo cyatangiye kwiyongera buhoro buhoro, kandi ubushobozi bwo kohereza amato bukomeje kurekurwa.Kuva muri Werurwe kugeza muri Kamena 2022, amasosiyete akomeye y’imodoka yagenzuye hafi 10 ku ijana y’ubushobozi bwayo adafite akazi kubera igabanuka ryihuse ry’imitwaro y’imirongo minini, ariko ntibyabujije gukomeza kugabanuka kw'ibiciro by’imizigo.
Muri icyo gihe, ingamba zo guhatanira inganda zitwara ibicuruzwa nazo zatangiye gutandukana.Ibigo bimwe byatangiye gushimangira ishoramari ry’ibikorwa remezo ku nkombe, kugura bamwe mu bakora umwuga wa gasutamo n’amasosiyete y’ibikoresho, kwihutisha ivugurura ry’ikoranabuhanga;Ibigo bimwe bishimangira guhindura imiyoboro mishya y’ingufu, ishakisha ubwato bushya bukoreshwa na lisansi ya LNG, methanol n’amashanyarazi.Ibigo bimwe na bimwe byakomeje kongera ibicuruzwa ku mato mashya.
Ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’imiterere iherutse kuba ku isoko, kutizerana bikomeje gukwirakwira, ndetse n’igipimo cy’ibicuruzwa bitwara ibicuruzwa ku isi cyagabanutse vuba, ndetse n’isoko ry’ibibanza ryaragabanutseho hejuru ya 80% ku gipimo cyacyo ugereranije n’impinga.Abatwara, abatwara ibicuruzwa hamwe na banyiri imizigo kumikino yo kongera imbaraga.Imyitwarire yabatwara irakomeye itangiye guhagarika inyungu zabatwara imbere.Mugihe kimwe, igiciro cyibibanza hamwe nigihe kirekire-gihuza igiciro cyinzira zimwe na zimwe zirahinduka.Ibigo bimwe byasabye gushaka kongera kuganira ku biciro birebire birebire, bishobora no gutuma habaho kutubahiriza amasezerano yo gutwara abantu.Nyamara, nk'amasezerano agenga isoko, ntabwo byoroshye guhindura ayo masezerano, ndetse akanahura n'ingaruka zikomeye z'indishyi.

Tuvuge iki ku bihe bizaza
Urebye uko ibintu bimeze, ahazaza h'ibicuruzwa byo mu nyanja bigabanuka cyangwa bigufi.
Duhereye ku byifuzo, kubera ubukana bw’ifaranga ry’isi yose ryatewe no kwihutisha izamuka ry’inyungu y’amadolari y’Amerika, igabanuka ry’ibiciro by’abaguzi n’amafaranga akoreshwa n’ifaranga ryinshi mu Burayi no muri Amerika, ibarura ry’ibicuruzwa byinshi no kugabanuka. ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu Burayi no muri Amerika hamwe n’ibindi bintu bibi, icyifuzo cyo gutwara kontineri gishobora gukomeza kwiheba.Nubwo bimeze bityo ariko, iheruka gusohoka mu cyegeranyo cy’amakuru y’abaguzi muri Amerika no kugarura ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu Bushinwa nk’ibikoresho bito byo mu rugo bishobora kugabanya igabanuka ry’ibisabwa.
Urebye kubitangwa, ubwinshi bwibyambu byo mumahanga bizarushaho koroshya, biteganijwe ko ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga bizarushaho kunozwa, kandi umuvuduko wo gutanga ubushobozi bwo kohereza mu gihembwe cya kane urashobora kwihuta, bityo isoko rikaba rihura n’ibikomeye igitutu kirenze.
Ariko, kuri ubu, amasosiyete akomeye y’imyenda yatangiye gushyiraho ingamba nshya zo guhagarika, kandi izamuka ry’ubushobozi bukomeye ku isoko rishobora kugenzurwa.Muri icyo gihe, amakimbirane y’Uburusiya na Ukraine ndetse n'izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ingufu ku isi nabyo byazanye ibintu byinshi bidashidikanywaho ku bijyanye n’isoko ry’ejo hazaza.Muri rusange, icya kane cy'inganda zitwara ibicuruzwa ziracyari mu cyiciro cya "ebb tide", ibyateganijwe kuzamuka biracyabura inkunga ikomeye, gutwara ibicuruzwa muri rusange umuvuduko wo kumanuka, kugabanuka cyangwa kugabanuka.
Dufatiye ku masosiyete atwara ibicuruzwa, birakenewe ko twitegura bihagije ku ngaruka za “tide tide” mu nganda za kontineri.Ishoramari ryubwato rirashobora kurushaho kwitonda, gusobanukirwa neza agaciro kubwato bugezweho ningaruka zogutwara ibicuruzwa ku isoko, hitamo amahirwe yo gushora imari;Tugomba kwitondera impinduka nshya mumasezerano ya RCEP, ubucuruzi bwakarere, ubwikorezi bwihuse hamwe numuyoboro ukonje kugirango twegere abafite imizigo kandi tunoze ubushobozi bwa serivise zihererekanyabubasha hamwe nibyiza byo guhatanira.Hindura icyerekezo kigezweho cyo guhuza umutungo wicyambu, gushimangira iterambere rihuriweho nibyambu, no guteza imbere iterambere rihuriweho namashami abanza nayisumbuye.Mugihe kimwe, ongera impinduka ya digitale no kuzamura ubucuruzi no kunoza ubushobozi bwo kuyobora urubuga.
Dufatiye kubohereza ibicuruzwa, dukwiye kwita cyane kumihindagurikire yimiterere yo gukoresha hanze kandi tugaharanira ibicuruzwa byinshi byoherezwa hanze.Tuzagenzura neza ibiciro bizamuka by’ibikoresho fatizo, tugenzure neza ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa byarangiye, dutezimbere kuzamura ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga no guhanga udushya mu ikoranabuhanga, no kongera agaciro k’ibicuruzwa byoherejwe hanze.Witondere cyane inkunga ya politiki yigihugu yo guteza imbere ubucuruzi bw’amahanga no kwinjiza muburyo bwiterambere rya e-ubucuruzi bwambukiranya imipaka.
Urebye kubohereza ibicuruzwa, birakenewe kugenzura igiciro cy’ishoramari, kunoza ubushobozi bwa serivisi zose z’ibikoresho, no gukumira ikibazo cy’itangwa ry’ibicuruzwa bishobora guterwa no gucika kw'urunigi rw’imari.